The Sde Dov Barometer: What the Recorded Deals Actually Say

The July print lands inside the market page’s recent-months district average of ₪56-59K per square metre. The June print sits between ZOHI’s ₪70,000 asking price and the FAQ’s early-2026 average of about ₪81K. The thirty-seventh floor can only be a new tower: the flagship marketed towers run from 34 floors (ASHIRA, UTOPIA) to 45 (FIRST), with RAINBOW and DIMRI YAMA at 39 and GINDI VOGUE at 44. First occupancy on the field is still targeted around 2029. The tenth-floor print could be several things. The feed does not assign either contract to a named project.

GovMap’s radius search, retrieved 19 August 2026, attached 1,569 recorded deals to polygon 6900-23. The street-deals endpoint for that id returned a totalCount of 1,500. Three neighboring polygons in the same Sde Dov set carry their own inventories: 6896-204 (711), 6884-16 (120), 6885-57 (181). Those four gush numbers (6884, 6885, 6896, 6900) are the blocks GovMap associates with the neighborhood.

Do not read 1,569 as 1,569 new airfield presales. The seven consumer-facing projects hold 2,969 apartments between them. RAINBOW, the deepest book in the press, had 234 units sold by August 2025 and about 300 by the Q1 2026 filings. A four-digit count on one cadastral polygon is the neighborhood’s accumulated street-deal history, including stock that predates the 2023 sales launch. The useful fact is narrower. Ask GovMap by gush and chelka, and it returns dated, measured contracts. The two summer-2026 rows are what that query produced at unit level.

The sdedov.co.il market page, citing Israel Tax Authority transaction reports and updated in August 2026, puts the district average at ₪56-59K per square metre in recent months. Central-complex option deals sit around ₪63K. Four-room contracts average about ₪8.1M across the district, but that number is a blend: Eshkol about ₪9.6M, Central about ₪6.5M. Five-room deals in the last twelve months: Eshkol about ₪11.4M, Central about ₪8.6M. The published extremes are ₪43.75M for 508 square metres in Eshkol (₪86,122 per metre) and ₪2.3M for 32 square metres (₪71,875 per metre).

The site’s FAQ, as of early 2026, cites a different district average: about ₪81K per square metre. It also publishes a room ladder: two-room ₪3.81M, three-room ₪6.86M, four-room ₪9.45M, five-room ₪11.61M. The compiled catalog states that the two figures differ by methodology. It does not publish the FAQ formula, and this article will not invent one.

What can be seen without guessing the code: the FAQ room prices track the market page’s Eshkol column (₪9.45M against ₪9.6M for four rooms; ₪11.61M against ₪11.4M for five), not the Central column (₪6.5M and ₪8.6M). The ₪81K FAQ average sits next to Israel Canada’s later filing average of ₪85,700 per square metre, and next to the ₪70-85K “district average” Gindi’s project page uses as a foil. The ₪56-59K Tax Authority mix sits next to Central option paper at ₪63K and next to the July GovMap sample at ₪56,577.

Both numbers can be on the same website at the same time. One is a recent, district-wide mix of recorded transactions, including cheaper Central contracts and option deals. The other is an early-2026 snapshot that behaves like an Eshkol, new-build, higher-spec average. Blending them into a single “Sde Dov price” is how a sales desk gets a buyer to stop asking questions.

Calcalist, 27 August 2025: Israel Canada’s average closed RAINBOW deal in the second quarter of 2025 was ₪11M, a record for the 480-unit project on Eshkol lot 111. Cumulative sales at that date: 234 units for ₪2B. Divide the book, not the headline. ₪2 billion across 234 apartments is about ₪8.55M each. The ₪11M is a quarterly average. The ₪2B is the running total. Treating them as one figure overstates the lifetime print.

Mako, 1 January 2026: RAINBOW moved to execution with Ashtrom as contractor for about ₪736M. Works started that month. The project was reported about 70 percent pre-sold. Seventy percent of 480 is 336 units.

Globes, 2 June 2026, reading first-quarter filings: Israel Canada had sold about 300 units at an average of ₪85,700 per square metre, and the district sales pace was collapsing. Three hundred units at ₪85,700 is a price. It is not a velocity. The stock went from 234 (August 2025) to about 300 (Q1 2026 filings) on a project already described, in January, as mostly sold. Globes called that a stall. The filing, as reported, does not isolate units sold in the first quarter alone. The ₪85,700 figure is still the closest the record comes to a developer-reported shekel-per-metre on closed Eshkol paper. It sits ₪4,700 above the FAQ’s ₪81K and ₪26,000 to ₪29,000 above the Tax Authority recent-months mix.

On 3 June 2025 Nadlan Center reported that Gindi Holdings listed GINDI VOGUE from ₪49,000 per square metre, tens of percent below the district average, and sold around 700 apartments within weeks. The scheme is 708 units in Mitcham Merkaz (מתחם מרכז, the Central complex), about 250 metres from the sea. The project page later marketed from about ₪59,000 against a cited district range of ₪70-85K.

Gindi won two Central plots in the February 2025 tenders, when land prices came in about 40 percent below the August 2021 Eshkol record (₪4.4B for 1,540 units, about ₪2.8M of land per home). Cheaper dirt, cheaper list. The ₪49,000 launch is the first public demonstration of that arithmetic, and the volume is large enough to pull down any district average that includes Central. A recorded mix that swallows Gindi-scale paper, Central option deals at about ₪63K, and an Eshkol penthouse will look like ₪56-59K. A FAQ still thinking in Eshkol 2025-26 closes will look like ₪81K.

By 5 August 2026 an option-holder had sued Gindi for a refund of about ₪500K after the PFAS contamination findings. Option paper is not a completed sale. The market page already prices Central options as their own line. Other published asks belong on the same worksheet, not in the same cell: DIMRI YAMA from ₪3.75M for a two-room (December 2025), later described as the highest price per square metre then on sale (Nadlan Center, April 2026); ZOHI from ₪70,000 per square metre (January 2026); ASHIRA’s penthouse at ₪19.5M (August 2024); FIRST, 46 sales in two months after a July 2025 launch, with no published list price. Yigal Dimri has said prices in Sde Dov can reach ₪150,000 per square metre. That is a chairman’s sentence, not a recorded deal. Calcalist, 28 May 2026, reported that almost half the apartments Dimri sold were bought by the controlling shareholder. A recorded deal is not automatically an arm’s-length deal.

Keep the layers apart. An asking price is what the brochure or the desk says: Gindi from ₪49,000 then about ₪59,000; ZOHI from ₪70,000; Dimri from ₪3.75M. A closed-deal average in a filing is what one developer booked: RAINBOW at ₪11M in Q2 2025, then ₪85,700 per square metre on a book of about 300. The Tax Authority mix on the district market page is what a wider sample of recorded transactions did in recent months, including Central options. A GovMap print is one dated contract with an area, a floor, and a gush/chelka. Land cost is the floor under the tower: 2021 Eshkol against 2025 Central, about 40 percent apart.

If a sales agent quotes ₪81K as “the district average,” ask which methodology, which months, and whether Central option paper is in the sample. If they quote ₪56-59K, ask how much of that is Gindi-scale Central volume and how much is Eshkol. If they flash a GovMap screen, write down the date, the area, the floor, and the parcel id, then divide. If they quote a quarterly average, ask for the cumulative book as well. Calcalist, on 24 February 2026, was still asking what apartments cost in “Israel’s most expensive neighborhood.” Globes, on 2 June, read the first-quarter filings as a stall. A high stock of signed contracts and a thinner flow of new ones can live in the same year.

Sde Dov will keep printing averages. Each one is a sample with a date, a geography, and a method. On 1 January 2026 the district site ran its own year-in-review under the title “Israel’s real-estate barometer.” The useful barometer is not that headline, and it is not whichever shekel-per-metre a brochure prefers. It is the habit of asking which deals went into the number, and which class of paper they were.

First occupancy is still targeted around 2029. PFAS findings from February 2026 hang over lots that did not test clean; ASHIRA’s lot 101 did, and coverage treated that as a sales edge. A leftover 217-unit Central tender had been postponed twelve times by May 2026. Those facts are not prices. They are why a recorded contract on a drawing is not yet a key.

Until the buildings stand, keep the layers in separate columns. GovMap for dated unit prints. The Tax Authority page for the mixed recent book. The filings for one developer’s closed average. The launch ads for what someone hoped you would pay. The July contract at ₪56,577 and the June contract at ₪74,758 are both real. A buyer who cannot say which one they are being sold should not sign.